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    Your Breast Cancer Risk Score:
    Video and Background

    Our Breast Health Center uses the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) Model to estimate your absolute risk for breast cancer over the next five years. Absolute risk describes an individual’s likelihood of developing breast cancer. It is based on the number of people who will develop breast cancer within a defined time period.

    The BCSC’s five-year breast cancer risk calculation is designed for women ages 35-79. The calculation is based on five factors:

    1. Age
    2. Race / ethnicity
    3. Family history of breast cancer in a first-degree relative (mother, sister or daughter)
    4. History of a breast biopsy (core biopsy, excisional biopsy or fine-needle aspiration)
    5. BI-RADS breast density (radiologic assessment of the density of your breast tissue).
    While we can calculate your risk of developing breast cancer, we cannot predict which women will actually develop breast cancer. According to the National Cancer Institute, a woman has a 1-in-8 chance of developing invasive breast cancer at some point during her life. Because your age is the strongest risk factor for breast cancer, your risk increases as you get older.

    For women with a breast cancer risk score of 3% and higher, you may be a candidate for taking medications that can significantly decrease your risk, according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Additionally, if you have a strong family history of breast cancer, you can explore genetic counseling, available at CPMC. Please use your report as a starting point to discuss your breast health with your doctor.

    Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Video


    Support of this project was provided by the Daniel and Phyllis Da Costa Funds of the CPMC Foundation and Sutter Health CPMC We would also like to acknowledge the work and contributions from the following researchers who developed the risk assessment questionnaire and algorithms that have been translated into our program:

    • Steven R. Cummings, MD, FACP, Director CPMC Coordinating Center
    • Celia Kaplan, DrPh, Professor in Residence, Department of Medicine, UCSF
    • Karla Kerlikowske, MD, Professor, Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology/Biostatistics, UCSF and Principal Investigator of the NCI-funded San Francisco Mammography Registry
    • Alice LaRocca, Project Director, San Francisco Coordinating Center
    • John Shepherd, PhD, Associate Adjunct Professor, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, UCSF
    • Jeffrey Tice, MD, Associate Professor,  Department of Medicine, UCSF